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Posted on Jun 8, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, President Obama, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party | 0 comments

Why the polls missed Hillary’s big win in California and the dilemma she faces

  Hillary Clinton won California big, by 12 percentage points, in what figures to have ended whatever slim chance Bernie Sanders had in the Democratic race. This race was assumed by many to be much closer based upon late polls that had her leading Sanders by a shrinking 2 percent. How wrong they were. Why? In all fairness, an outlier poll, by the LA Times/USC, had Clinton winning by 10 percent. And the reason they called it more accurately is that they ultimately relied on their model of the “likely voter” rather than their sample of eligible voters. By the way, when the “eligible voters” sample was used in their poll, it yielded results similar to the other polls showing the race a virtual dead-heat. So the more refined “likely voter” sample generated much more accurate results. A little background will help in understanding why different samples resulted in such wildly varying results, and why polling techniques that worked in several prior primaries weren’t appropriate for the California race. You will...

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Posted on May 12, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, immigration, Obamacare, President Obama, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Social Issues: Gun control, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Presidential Polls show Trump and Clinton nearly tied. What does it mean?

    After having become the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, the latest polls show that Donald Trump has received a bump in the polls, and is nearly tied with Hillary Clinton. Since Hillary held a large, if not commanding, lead over Trump just a couple of weeks ago, this has many Clinton supporters in near panic. What does this recent surge by Donald really mean? For one thing upon becoming either party’s standard-bearer, candidates usually receive a bump in the polls. The same thing happens following the party conventions in the summer. These latter poll jumps are most often short-lived as one party convention is followed in short order by the other’s. However, understanding the bump that the winning candidate gets in the polls upon becoming a party’s presumptive nominee is a bit more complicated, since there is often a significant period when the primary races are over between parties. Let’s take look at the mechanics of this kind of poll bump. During the primary campaign, a significant number of supporters of the...

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Posted on May 6, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Congress, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, President Obama, Presidential debates, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Hillary’s challenge and suggested strategy for borderline states. Crown King Donald.

    Donald Trump has now been crowned King of the Republican Party. It’s semi-official now. Hillary’s strategy of minority and women should net her most of the large population states. But what about the states with low minority citizenship? Those mostly went for Bernie and Donald. Well, you first have to differentiate between those that are Trump strongholds according to the polls–despite Trump’s high “unfavorables.” The others are considered borderline states, i.e., Trump may be favored, but under the right circumstances they are winnable for Hillary, even in the face of her own very high “unfavorable” ratings–again according to the latest polls. On paper Hillary has a tough challenge to win any of those borderline states. Her minority base just isn’t there. And face it, among blue-collar white male voters, and their issues with her gender, combined with Tump’s already demonstrated appeal with to them, Hillary Clinton is not going to gain much traction. What potential inroads she does have, will not work without a new zinger issue that hits home. And “home” to blue...

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Posted on Apr 28, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Congress, Cruz, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Presidential race ironies and conundrums.

  In so many ways this primary season is full of serious, but often amusing, ironies. Mainstream Republican regulars and elected officials might have to run for re-election on a ticket headed by a candidate they not only have distaste for, but likely one whom nearly 2/3s of the general electorate have indicated they disliked. And don’t forget that a not insignificant percentage of the voters simply check off their candidate for President, and then “pull the lever,” or vote for the same party’s nominee for all of the others offices up for election. Against this backdrop consider the only candidates who presently qualify for nomination (according to the rules, which are susceptible to change at the beginning of the party’s convention), are: Donald Trump, who has insulted almost every known minority (including disabled persons), either directly or indirectly. He has been likened by some of the world leaders to Adolph Hitler, by many others simply as an unsteady bully. 560,000 British citizens signed, and sent to Parliament, a petition...

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Posted on Apr 15, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton | 1 comment

Feisty debate but Hillary still likely to win New York

    Thursday’s debate, in advance of Tuesdays primary in New York, underscored the main differences between Hillary and Bernie and are unlikely to change many voters’ minds. Sanders promises more: free college tuition, universal healthcare, an immediate $15 raise in the minimum wage. He only vaguely offers details about how these programs would be paid for–basically financing for all of them boils down to taxing Wall Street and the rich. I would say the chances of any one of his programs getting through this Congress is zero. As would be bills for the taxes to pay for them. Hillary, as the almost certain nominee, has to be more grounded and this apparently is not what the army of young activists that supports Sanders wants to hear. Bernie also brought up breaking up the big banks. He was asked in a recent newspaper interview about how he would do that and fumbled for an answer, that he never found. Hillary, on the other hand, has established herself as a pragmatic...

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