The decades long attacks on Hillary Clinton, from Whitewater, back in the nineties, to Benghazi now, have succeeded in raising doubts among voters about her trustworthiness. Nevertheless, she still leads Donald Trump by a healthy 7 or so points in most national polls. One interesting phenomenon polls also reveal, is that former Republican Mayor of New York’s assertion that being from New York he “knows a con when he sees one”–and that Donald Trump “is a con,” is bore out by polls of New York voters. Keep in mind that New York’s voters not only know Trump better than anyone else, but they also know Clinton best, having had her as their US. Senator for two terms. So whom do New Yorkers favor in the race for president? Even including the pre-conventions Quinnipiac Poll, the RCPPoll of Polls for New York has her leading by 17 points. A new Siena poll shows that Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming 25 points lead over Donald Trump. And, that lead is...Read More
Trump’s post-convention 6 point bounce was wiped clean as Hillary emerged from the Democratic Convention with a 6 to 9 point lead, according to most polls. One reason was the well produced program that the Demos put on. Part of it was due to Trump’s own continued poor judgment, his foot-in-mouthitis as he chose to denigrate a gold star mother who son, Capt. Humayun Khan, heroically gave his life in Afghanistan saving others during a suicide bombing. As usual Donald was his own worst enemy. Not only did Trump, who never served in our military himself, insult Mrs Khan and her religion, but he doubled down the next day, expanding his attacks on the Khans. This quickly drew the vocal ire of most mainstream Republicans and veterans throughout the country. The Veterans of Foreign Wars joined in the condemnation of Trump, as they, too, wondered about whether such a man could be qualified to be Commander-in-Chief. As if that wasn’t enough, Trump took on fellow Republicans Sen. John McCain and Speaker Paul...Read More
Trump’s destabilizing policies threaten America’s nuclear deterrence strategy–traitorous action or simply ignorance?
Seventy years of bi-partisanship have gone into creating a credible deterrence strategy to cope with the challenges posed to our foreign policy in an era of nuclear powers and the means of delivering them. Our deterrence strategy rests upon the elimination and reduction of doubt as to whether certain actions against ourselves and our allies will produce a response by the U.S. that is unacceptable to a potential enemy. The weaving of alliances and other measures taken to implement and maintain this strategy has been supported by every President, Secretary of Defense, and Secretary of State, both Republican and Democratic, since the fateful dropping of those early atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended World War II and ushered in the dangerous nuclear age. This credibility of our response and commitments to our allies have been seriously, if not fatally, weakened by Donald Trump’s clearly ignorant insertion of doubt into the equation. He might as well have invited North Korea across the “no-man’s land” and across the 38th parallel and on into our...Read More
The first polls following FBI Director Comey’s decision are in. On Tuesday, July 6, FBI Director James Comey announced his long awaited conclusion to the email controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton. He announced that he would recommend to the Justice Department that Clinton should not be indicted, not even even for lesser misdemeanor charges. In explaining his position, Comey acknowledged “extremely careless” behaviors by then Secretary of State Clinton, in her use of a home server for State Department business emails, some of which contained classified information, and a some that were classified at the time she sent or received the emails. My immediate reaction was that Comey’s statement gave some material that would serve as fodder for both sides in this extremely ugly presidential race. Hillary’s supporters would, with a big sigh of relief, focus on the bottom line of Comey’s statement, i.e., no charges will be filed against Clinton. Trump backers would jump on the “careless” part of Comey’s comments, and the finding that, indeed, Hillary did send or receive...Read More
Here’s how Hillary Clinton can successfully enlist Bernie Sanders’ enthusiastic endorsement and hope that this will bring over to the Clinton side in the general election, as many of his supporters as possible. If she does so, Hillary will get a bump up in her polls, much as Trump did upon the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich. Actually, just the fact of Bernie saying he wants to help HC defeat Trump in November gave Clinton about a 6 percent jump in the polls, widening her lead over Trump from 2 to about 8 percentage points. This effect became obfuscated by the shootings in Florida, and the claims of the shooter connecting his action to ISIS. In times of crisis. Trump’s “tough guy” image, sways some voters. Recall that polls had given Trump higher numbers than Clinton in being “best able to deal with terrorism.” There certainly is a gender bias on this issue with some voters. How much it affects voter choice in times of crises isn’t certain. Nonetheless, Trump’s...Read More
Hillary Clinton won California big, by 12 percentage points, in what figures to have ended whatever slim chance Bernie Sanders had in the Democratic race. This race was assumed by many to be much closer based upon late polls that had her leading Sanders by a shrinking 2 percent. How wrong they were. Why? In all fairness, an outlier poll, by the LA Times/USC, had Clinton winning by 10 percent. And the reason they called it more accurately is that they ultimately relied on their model of the “likely voter” rather than their sample of eligible voters. By the way, when the “eligible voters” sample was used in their poll, it yielded results similar to the other polls showing the race a virtual dead-heat. So the more refined “likely voter” sample generated much more accurate results. A little background will help in understanding why different samples resulted in such wildly varying results, and why polling techniques that worked in several prior primaries weren’t appropriate for the California race. You will...Read More