New state polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina show Dr. Carson and Donald Trump continuing to lead the rest of the Republican hopefuls by a considerable, though declining, amount. National polls confirm those findings. Carson has gained on Trump over the past month and they now poll about the same. Both have had surges, and the lead has now changed hands several times. Though they still have a big lead over the rest of the field, their chances of winning the nomination are in danger of being marginalized–by their own hands or mouths, to be more precise. Trump, whose self-aggrandizing, bombastic, some say bullying style, that got him a lot of free media coverage, while appealing to about a quarter of the voters in national polls. However, that style has also earned him very high “unfavorable” views by the remainder of Republican voters, nearly all of whom had formed an opinion of him–something unusual for this early in the race for the nomination. Because of that, over a month ago we predicted a plateauing of Trump’s support....Read More
Update today-New Polls with Biden out Hillary’s lead insurmountable? Carson edges into 1st . Trump plateaus.
Four polls, now, all show that, as expected, with Joe Biden’s name now off the pollsters’ list, Hillary’s has surged to an even bigger lead for the nomination. If she doesn’t stumble (or get pushed) due to her e-mail controversy it appears to be insurmountable. Nationally, Fox’s poll, November 4, had Clinton on top of Sanders, 56 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley barely lights up the board at 2 percent. The new NBC/WSJ poll shows Clinton up over Sanders by 2 to 1, 62 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley is far back with 3 percent support. Quinnipiac has her up by “only” 18 percent, but her numbers even there are over the magic 50 percent level (53 percent). O’Malley’s hope was to pick up some of the anti-Hillary Democratic voters who had previously indicate Biden as their choice, and who didn’t feel comfortable supporting self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders. This didn’t materialize, and, the only rationale for O’Malley continuing in the race would be to give his name national exposure so as to be considered...Read More
Pending actual post-debate polls, my gut analysis of the debate is that each of the candidates did fine relative to the desired image they hoped to project; none stood out and most supporters will feel okay about their candidate’s performance. Nobody likely made a big move up or down because of his or her debate. The problem for the candidates is that the pie still totals only 100 percent. It’s difficult to see where there is any room for candidates to rise if its not from the two front-runners. I’m not seeing any other paths for candidates not named Carson or Trump. CNBC, if anyone, was the big loser, but not because of tough, unfair questions, save for the first one posed Trump about his campaign style that used an insulting characterization rather than many of the real criticisms that they could have used. More on this in a minute. Frankly, Dr. Carson seemed like he had a weak debate last time, and he did to me again...Read More
Going into 3rd debate: Nat’l & Iowa polls–Trump falls behind Carson, and then claims the polls are fictitious.
Over the past weekend, four Iowa polls showed Trump’s campaign stalling and then losing the lead to Dr. Carson. Our poll data analysis predicted this over a month ago, for reasons that we’ll note below, and now the first national poll confirms that it isn’t just an Iowa phenomenon, as many Trump supporters have alleged. Monday, the CBS/New York Times national poll of Republican voters showed Dr. Carson, for the first time, taking the lead over Donald Trump, 26 percent to 22 percent. Going into the third debate two of what many believe are Trump personality bugaboos, defensiveness and denial, are rearing their ugly heads as he argues that the debate won’t be fair and then denies the new polls numbers, reportedly arguing that the media “continues to report fictitious numbers,” and even blames Iowan’s for his troubles. In fairness, Trump subsequently admitted that he was in second place in Iowa. Today, Wednesday, October 28, Texas and Oklahoma poll results were published. The Texas poll showed that Trump’s earlier lead was...Read More
This past week’s polls show some serious Donald Trump slippage. A deeper look into the polls suggests that his problems go well beyond losing the lead to Dr. Ben Carson in Iowa and Wisconsin. In today’s post we will show why his campaign is in real trouble. For the Democrats events of the week suggest a big Hillary win. Now for the details. Polls, released Thursday and Friday, indicate that Dr. Ben Carson has surged ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa. Monday, the Monmouth poll showed that surge continues. A Wisconsin poll also shows Dr. Carson moving into the lead there. Trump’s spectacular, and unconventional campaign, until now, had resulted in him taking a sizable lead in both state and national polls. There were, however, clear warning signs that his campaign had hit a wall–at a polling level well below the majority needed for nomination. We’ll look into what these signs were, but first note the reasons so many political pundits had expected his campaign to implode. This will provide the background for the data...Read More
10-22 New Polls Analysis-Carson leads Trump in Iowa, Wisc., Sanders edges higher as Benghazi hearings start
Thursday, October 22. New State Polls from Iowa and Wisconsin: Carson overtakes Trump. Rubio moves up. Quinnipiac’s poll in Iowa and the Wisconsin Public Radio/Norbert poll in Wisconsin spell bad news for Trump, upswings for Carson and Rubio. First the bottom line data. Carson has pulled ahead of Trump in both Iowa and Wisconsin, by 28 percent to 20 percent and 20 percent to 18 percent respectively. Rubio has moved up in both polls, garnering 13 percent in Iowa and tying Trump for second place with 18 percent. More detailed analysis of the Iowa poll’s raw data is even more problematic for Trump’s campaign. For even though he leads Carson in terms of who can better handle the economy, taxes and illegal immigration, fully 30 percent of those polled chose Trump as a candidate that they definitely could not support for the Republican nomination. (Bush was second in this to-be-avoided negative category with 21%). Only 4 percent chose Carson. Women and social conservatives gave Carson a big boost. Respondents who identified...Read More