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Posted on Jul 7, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Corey’s e-mail server report: How it will affect Hillary’s chances.

  The first polls following FBI Director Comey’s decision are in. On Tuesday, July 6, FBI Director James Comey announced his long awaited conclusion to the email controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton. He announced that he would recommend to the Justice Department that Clinton should not be indicted, not even even for lesser misdemeanor charges. In explaining his position, Comey acknowledged “extremely careless” behaviors by then Secretary of State Clinton, in her use of a home server for State Department business  emails, some of which contained classified information, and a some  that were classified at the time she sent or received the emails. My immediate reaction was that Comey’s statement gave some material that would serve as fodder for both sides in this extremely ugly presidential race. Hillary’s supporters would, with a big sigh of relief, focus on the bottom line of Comey’s statement, i.e., no charges will be filed against Clinton. Trump backers would jump on the “careless” part of Comey’s comments, and the finding that, indeed, Hillary did send or receive...

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Posted on Jun 14, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Social Issues: Free Trade and Labor displacement., Uncategorized | 0 comments

Bernie can help Hillary get a polls bump-Here’s how to make it happen. Also Brexit effect

  Here’s how Hillary Clinton can successfully enlist Bernie Sanders’ enthusiastic endorsement and hope that this will bring over to the Clinton side in the general election, as many of his supporters as possible. If she does so, Hillary will get a bump up in her polls, much as Trump did upon the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich. Actually, just the fact of Bernie saying he wants to help HC defeat Trump in November gave Clinton about a 6 percent jump in the polls, widening her lead over Trump  from 2 to about 8 percentage points. This effect became obfuscated by the shootings in Florida, and the claims of the shooter connecting his action to ISIS. In times of crisis. Trump’s “tough guy” image, sways some voters. Recall that polls had given Trump higher numbers than Clinton in being “best able to deal with terrorism.” There certainly is a gender bias on this issue with some voters. How much it affects voter choice in times of crises isn’t certain. Nonetheless, Trump’s...

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Posted on Jun 8, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, President Obama, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party | 0 comments

Why the polls missed Hillary’s big win in California and the dilemma she faces

  Hillary Clinton won California big, by 12 percentage points, in what figures to have ended whatever slim chance Bernie Sanders had in the Democratic race. This race was assumed by many to be much closer based upon late polls that had her leading Sanders by a shrinking 2 percent. How wrong they were. Why? In all fairness, an outlier poll, by the LA Times/USC, had Clinton winning by 10 percent. And the reason they called it more accurately is that they ultimately relied on their model of the “likely voter” rather than their sample of eligible voters. By the way, when the “eligible voters” sample was used in their poll, it yielded results similar to the other polls showing the race a virtual dead-heat. So the more refined “likely voter” sample generated much more accurate results. A little background will help in understanding why different samples resulted in such wildly varying results, and why polling techniques that worked in several prior primaries weren’t appropriate for the California race. You will...

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Posted on Jun 2, 2016 in Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Presidential debates, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Hillary: How she should handle Free Trade/Job losses issue with Trump

  Hillary should be forthright and center stage on the issue of free trade and job losses. In our last blog we suggested that this was an enormous challenge, but one that she must meet. The challenge is compounded by the complexity of the economics involved–I suggested that it would take two graduate seminars to comprehend–and I promised a shortened statement of the problems and offer solutions. The couple of minutes usually allowed for presentations in the debates require this method of dealing with the issue. She must emphasize her recognition of the seriousness of the problem upfront and she can elaborate in rebuttals and follow-up questions. And on the stump she can focus on its individual parts: Here’s how she can deal with the issue successfully: The free trade agreements that started under Bill, and continued under successive administrations, both Republican and Democratic, have increased exports, lowered costs to consumers, created many jobs BUT it has created job losses a well and we MUST find solutions for those workers affected....

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Posted on May 12, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, immigration, Obamacare, President Obama, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Social Issues: Gun control, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Presidential Polls show Trump and Clinton nearly tied. What does it mean?

    After having become the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, the latest polls show that Donald Trump has received a bump in the polls, and is nearly tied with Hillary Clinton. Since Hillary held a large, if not commanding, lead over Trump just a couple of weeks ago, this has many Clinton supporters in near panic. What does this recent surge by Donald really mean? For one thing upon becoming either party’s standard-bearer, candidates usually receive a bump in the polls. The same thing happens following the party conventions in the summer. These latter poll jumps are most often short-lived as one party convention is followed in short order by the other’s. However, understanding the bump that the winning candidate gets in the polls upon becoming a party’s presumptive nominee is a bit more complicated, since there is often a significant period when the primary races are over between parties. Let’s take look at the mechanics of this kind of poll bump. During the primary campaign, a significant number of supporters of the...

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