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Posted on Nov 10, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Going into the fourth debate Carson,Trump still stalled. Q & A from viewers about Polls, Primary Races, etc.

On the eve of the fourth Republican debate, new polls (November 9-10) from South Carolina and nationally continue to show back and forth lead changes–but also continue to show that BOTH Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson’s support levels have stalled in the 20s. Both retain their core supporters but are failing to garner support from the remainder of Republicans; In my last post, I gave suggestions as to why this has happened. Now clearly in third place, Marco Rubio has edged up–thereby earning the infamous Trump negative attacks. Most poll experts believe that Trump, for reasons cited in my earlier poll analysis, has peaked and will definitely not be the Republican Candidate for President. Carson’s demise is less certain with the greater Fox support and still high “favorables”–though a deeper look into poll data shows that as voters become familiar with him, he, too, has trouble expanding his core base of support. Carson’s surge over the last couple of weeks seems to have stalled as well. A window of opportunity has therefore...

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Posted on Nov 6, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Bullying and Pyramids: even as Trump & Carson lead in polls, they seem determined to self-destruct.

New state polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina show Dr. Carson and Donald Trump continuing to lead the rest of the Republican hopefuls by a considerable, though declining, amount. National polls confirm those findings. Carson has gained on Trump over the past month and they now  poll about the same. Both have had surges, and the lead has now changed hands several times. Though they still have a big lead over the rest of the field, their chances of winning the nomination are in danger of being marginalized–by their own hands or mouths, to be more precise. Trump, whose self-aggrandizing, bombastic, some say bullying style, that got him a  lot of free media coverage, while appealing to about a quarter of the voters in national polls. However, that style has also earned him very high “unfavorable” views by the remainder of Republican voters, nearly all of whom had formed an opinion of him–something unusual for this early in the race for the nomination. Because of that, over a month ago we predicted a plateauing of Trump’s support....

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Posted on Nov 2, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Update today-New Polls with Biden out Hillary’s lead insurmountable? Carson edges into 1st . Trump plateaus.

Four polls, now, all show that, as expected, with Joe Biden’s name now off the pollsters’ list, Hillary’s has surged to an even bigger lead for the nomination. If she doesn’t stumble (or get pushed) due to her e-mail controversy it appears to be insurmountable. Nationally, Fox’s poll, November 4, had Clinton on top of Sanders, 56 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley barely lights up the board at 2 percent. The new NBC/WSJ poll shows Clinton up over Sanders by 2 to 1, 62 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley is far back with 3 percent support. Quinnipiac has her up by  “only” 18 percent, but her numbers even there are over the magic 50  percent level (53 percent). O’Malley’s hope was to pick up some of the anti-Hillary Democratic voters who had previously indicate Biden as their choice, and who didn’t feel comfortable supporting self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders. This didn’t materialize, and, the only rationale for O’Malley continuing in the race would be to give his name national exposure so as to be considered...

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Posted on Oct 28, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Post Republican debate analysis.

  Pending actual post-debate polls, my gut analysis of the debate is that each of the candidates did fine relative to the desired  image they hoped to project; none stood out and most supporters will feel okay about their candidate’s performance. Nobody likely made a big move up or down because of his or her debate. The problem for the candidates is that the pie still totals only 100 percent. It’s difficult to see where there is any room for candidates to rise if its not from the two front-runners. I’m not seeing any other paths for candidates not named Carson or Trump. CNBC, if anyone, was the big loser, but not because of tough, unfair questions, save for the first one posed Trump about his campaign style that used an insulting characterization rather than many of the real criticisms that they could have used. More on this in a minute. Frankly, Dr. Carson seemed like he had a weak debate last time, and he did to me again...

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Posted on Oct 27, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Biden, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Going into 3rd debate: Nat’l & Iowa polls–Trump falls behind Carson, and then claims the polls are fictitious.

  Over the past weekend, four Iowa polls showed Trump’s campaign stalling and then losing the lead to Dr. Carson. Our poll data analysis predicted this over a month ago, for reasons that we’ll note below, and now the first national poll confirms that it isn’t just an Iowa phenomenon, as many Trump supporters have alleged. Monday, the CBS/New York Times national poll of Republican voters showed Dr. Carson, for the first time, taking the lead over Donald Trump, 26 percent to 22 percent. Going into the third debate two of what many believe are Trump personality bugaboos, defensiveness and denial, are rearing their ugly heads as he argues that the debate won’t be fair and then denies the new polls numbers, reportedly arguing that the media “continues to report fictitious numbers,” and even blames Iowan’s for his troubles. In fairness, Trump subsequently admitted that he was in second place in Iowa. Today, Wednesday, October 28, Texas and Oklahoma poll results were published. The Texas poll showed that Trump’s earlier lead was...

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Posted on Oct 23, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Biden, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, immigration, Iraq, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, O'Malley, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

This week’s Polls analysis. Big problems for Trump. Why? 7 Days ending 10-26

  This past week’s polls show some serious Donald Trump slippage. A deeper look into the polls suggests that his problems go well beyond losing the lead to Dr. Ben Carson in Iowa and Wisconsin. In today’s post we will show why his campaign is in real trouble.  For the Democrats events of the week suggest a big Hillary win. Now for the details. Polls, released Thursday and Friday, indicate that Dr. Ben Carson has surged ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa. Monday, the Monmouth poll showed that surge continues. A Wisconsin poll also shows Dr. Carson moving into the lead there. Trump’s spectacular, and unconventional campaign, until now, had resulted in him taking a sizable lead in both state and national polls. There were, however, clear warning signs that his campaign had hit a wall–at a polling level well below the majority needed for nomination. We’ll look into what these signs were, but first note the reasons so many political pundits had expected his campaign to implode. This will provide the background for the data...

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