Breaking down the polls: Signs of Trump peaking out, Clinton maintains lead over Sanders. Updated Tuesday.
The latest polls as of this writing show Donald Trump’s voter support leveling off or declining. Jeb Bush has his challenges as well. After two polls last week showed Bernie Sanders moving into a small lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, two new ones show her moving back into a comfortable lead both in Iowa and nationally. I consider only respected, probability-based polls. Caveat: Polls this far removed from the election are notoriously volatile. Now for the details. Trump’s problems are three-fold: 1) His support has leveled off to about 24%. 2) His unfavorable ratings are high, the highest of any Republican candidate, and 3) Virtually every Republican voter has heard of him. Taking the last point first, it should be noted that one of the most significant variables in early polling is name recognition. Donald Trump’s celebrity made for high name recognition going into the first debate (Hillary’s, on the Democratic side, as well). Trump’s controversial utterances insured that his name would get a lot of publicity. Bad as well...Read More