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Posted on Sep 23, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Breaking down the polls: Signs of Trump peaking out, Clinton maintains lead over Sanders. Updated Tuesday.

The latest polls as of this writing show Donald Trump’s voter support leveling off or declining. Jeb Bush has his challenges as well. After two polls last week showed Bernie Sanders moving into a small lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, two new ones show her moving back into a comfortable lead both in Iowa and nationally. I consider only respected, probability-based polls. Caveat: Polls this far removed from the election are notoriously volatile. Now for the details. Trump’s problems are three-fold: 1) His support has leveled off to about 24%. 2) His unfavorable ratings are high, the highest of any Republican candidate, and 3) Virtually every Republican voter has heard of him. Taking the last point first, it should be noted that one of the most significant variables in early polling is name recognition. Donald Trump’s celebrity made for high name recognition going into the first debate (Hillary’s, on the Democratic side, as well). Trump’s controversial utterances insured that his name would get a lot of publicity. Bad as well...

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Posted on Aug 19, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Congress, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Obamacare, President Obama, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Social Issues: Gun control | 0 comments

Hillary vs Bernie. Would a Sanders nomination be another McGovern debacle? Updated.

Without an early debate, or a perceived competitive contest, there has been less media attention, and fewer national polls of the Democratic race. Most of the major pollsters were two to three weeks outdated on the Democratic side by the time the media were focusing on the effects of some outrageous “Donaldisms” on the Republican electorate. Those older polls showed Hillary with a commanding lead over Bernie Sanders, and beating all of the Republican contenders handily–with her early numbers when matched against Donald Trump among her highest. Conversely, Bernie Sanders, with low name-recognition was shown doing much poorer in those match-ups against the Republican hopefuls than Hillary…Though I agree with him on many issues, I can’t imagine Bernie Sanders’ status as a Socialist allowing him to win the general election for president. America just isn’t ready for that. It would be a George McG0vern-Richard Nixon race all over again.

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