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Posted on Dec 19, 2015 in Eastern Europe, Elections-U.S., Jeb Bush, Presidential debates, Putin, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Who won the debate? Does it matter? Trump rationalizes Putin’s killing and arrests of journalists yet polls rise.

More than twenty Americans didn’t view the Republican debate for every one that did–making one wonder whether it made any difference as to who “won.” There are three levels of “winning” a presidential debate: 1) What actually happened? What would a theoretical panel of debate experts say about the various debate performances. This seems to be the least important kind of “winning,” 2) Whom do the media proclaim as the winners and losers? With all of the entrenched interests of the various media outlets, and the use of “talking heads” and “spin doctors,” the second type of “winners” may bear little relationship to those proclaimed by the first. Thus, media crowning, in reality, is relevant only insofar as it plays a part in determining who the “winners” are in the third level, which is whether it produces, 3) actual changes in the polls that may be attributable to 1) or 2). It’s too early to determine 3), actual poll changes due to the debate. As for the media, # 2) above,...

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Posted on Dec 14, 2015 in Cruz, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Foreign Policy Issues, Hillary Clinton, immigration, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Middle East, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

On day of Republican debate Trump stirs up hornets nest, receives near universal condemnation and goes UP in some polls!

  On the eve of Tuesday’s important Republican debate, all eyes, once again, are on Donald Trump. As most readers of this blog are aware, early last week Trump made his most inflammatory anti-Muslim proposal to date*, calling for: “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States (until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on).” He compounded the invective by citing, as precedent, the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II. His proposal followed the bombings in Paris and the mass shooting in San Bernardino, California. By applying a religious test for admission, most constitutional scholars felt that it was unconstitutional. Others noted that the internment of Japanese-Americans is considered one of the darkest governmental acts in U.S. history. Condemnation of Trump was immediate. Nearly all Republican leaders and candidates (with the notable exception of Ted Cruz) denounced Trump’s proposal as “un-American,” “disgusting,” “not who we are,” and much worse. Several said it disqualified him from being the Republican nominee. He was, many said, playing...

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Posted on Nov 10, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Going into the fourth debate Carson,Trump still stalled. Q & A from viewers about Polls, Primary Races, etc.

On the eve of the fourth Republican debate, new polls (November 9-10) from South Carolina and nationally continue to show back and forth lead changes–but also continue to show that BOTH Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson’s support levels have stalled in the 20s. Both retain their core supporters but are failing to garner support from the remainder of Republicans; In my last post, I gave suggestions as to why this has happened. Now clearly in third place, Marco Rubio has edged up–thereby earning the infamous Trump negative attacks. Most poll experts believe that Trump, for reasons cited in my earlier poll analysis, has peaked and will definitely not be the Republican Candidate for President. Carson’s demise is less certain with the greater Fox support and still high “favorables”–though a deeper look into poll data shows that as voters become familiar with him, he, too, has trouble expanding his core base of support. Carson’s surge over the last couple of weeks seems to have stalled as well. A window of opportunity has therefore...

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Posted on Nov 6, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Bullying and Pyramids: even as Trump & Carson lead in polls, they seem determined to self-destruct.

New state polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina show Dr. Carson and Donald Trump continuing to lead the rest of the Republican hopefuls by a considerable, though declining, amount. National polls confirm those findings. Carson has gained on Trump over the past month and they now  poll about the same. Both have had surges, and the lead has now changed hands several times. Though they still have a big lead over the rest of the field, their chances of winning the nomination are in danger of being marginalized–by their own hands or mouths, to be more precise. Trump, whose self-aggrandizing, bombastic, some say bullying style, that got him a  lot of free media coverage, while appealing to about a quarter of the voters in national polls. However, that style has also earned him very high “unfavorable” views by the remainder of Republican voters, nearly all of whom had formed an opinion of him–something unusual for this early in the race for the nomination. Because of that, over a month ago we predicted a plateauing of Trump’s support....

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Posted on Nov 2, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Update today-New Polls with Biden out Hillary’s lead insurmountable? Carson edges into 1st . Trump plateaus.

Four polls, now, all show that, as expected, with Joe Biden’s name now off the pollsters’ list, Hillary’s has surged to an even bigger lead for the nomination. If she doesn’t stumble (or get pushed) due to her e-mail controversy it appears to be insurmountable. Nationally, Fox’s poll, November 4, had Clinton on top of Sanders, 56 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley barely lights up the board at 2 percent. The new NBC/WSJ poll shows Clinton up over Sanders by 2 to 1, 62 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley is far back with 3 percent support. Quinnipiac has her up by  “only” 18 percent, but her numbers even there are over the magic 50  percent level (53 percent). O’Malley’s hope was to pick up some of the anti-Hillary Democratic voters who had previously indicate Biden as their choice, and who didn’t feel comfortable supporting self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders. This didn’t materialize, and, the only rationale for O’Malley continuing in the race would be to give his name national exposure so as to be considered...

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Posted on Oct 28, 2015 in Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Post Republican debate analysis.

  Pending actual post-debate polls, my gut analysis of the debate is that each of the candidates did fine relative to the desired  image they hoped to project; none stood out and most supporters will feel okay about their candidate’s performance. Nobody likely made a big move up or down because of his or her debate. The problem for the candidates is that the pie still totals only 100 percent. It’s difficult to see where there is any room for candidates to rise if its not from the two front-runners. I’m not seeing any other paths for candidates not named Carson or Trump. CNBC, if anyone, was the big loser, but not because of tough, unfair questions, save for the first one posed Trump about his campaign style that used an insulting characterization rather than many of the real criticisms that they could have used. More on this in a minute. Frankly, Dr. Carson seemed like he had a weak debate last time, and he did to me again...

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