T’was the night before the election in my house, I was hard at the computer gripping my mouse…and the winner is…
After more than a year of campaigning, the election tomorrow–not at all to exclude early voters–comes down to this: 1) Will the pause in the damage Hillary suffered at the polls with the undecided voters due to FBI Director Comey’s shenanigans, continue? 2) Will Comey’s exoneration of Hillary from any wrongdoing connected to the newly discovered email on ex-Congressman Weiner’s server produce some recovery of the independents who left Hillary over the insinuations–and Trump’s vicious attacks on her over it? 3) Will anything unexpected from outside of the presidential campaigning pop-up at the last minute to influence the voting. Politicians will be holding their breathes as the hours pass.
I won’t get into Director Comey’s decision to interfere with the race, in the first place although I do have strong feelings about it. But it unquestionably did change Hillary’s support.
In the period between Comey’s announcements, Clinton’s poll numbers dropped from a comfortable 6.8 percent down to a dangerously low 1.8 percent. Of importance to the undecideds decision-making, Hillary’s trust numbers dropped 3 percent, from about 38 percent to 35 percent. I focus on the undecideds because Hillary’s and Donald’s core supporters didn’t change by more than 1.5 to 2 percent, even with the sex scandal facing Trump, and the news of the found emails between Weiner and his estranged wife Huma Abedin. The latter, of course, gave Trump and his minions the ability to focus on diversions away from the negative attention that was being given him due to his interactions with some women and his now infamous statements about it being okay for a celebrity to walk up to, and grab a woman by her privates.
Even before Comey announced, in the final hours before the remaining votes were to be counted, that there was nothing to the “new” emails, Hillary’s numbers had stabilized, and, in a few polls, even edged back up a bit. Will they continue upward? Even a slight move upwards should give her campaign the momentum to win the Presidency.
I am a great believer in the importance of late momentum, and while I’d like to see a few polls taken today, a day after Comey’s new announcement, I am prepared to go out on a limb and project a Clinton victory with anywhere between 270 and 330 electoral votes. Where, in that range, Hillary’s final numbers fall, will likely determine control of the Senate–so important for many reasons, not the least being the ability to get Supreme Court nominations approved.