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Posted on Jun 14, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Social Issues: Free Trade and Labor displacement., Uncategorized | 0 comments

Bernie can help Hillary get a polls bump-Here’s how to make it happen. Also Brexit effect

 

Here’s how Hillary Clinton can successfully enlist Bernie Sanders’ enthusiastic endorsement and hope that this will bring over to the Clinton side in the general election, as many of his supporters as possible. If she does so, Hillary will get a bump up in her polls, much as Trump did upon the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich.

Actually, just the fact of Bernie saying he wants to help HC defeat Trump in November gave Clinton about a 6 percent jump in the polls, widening her lead over Trump  from 2 to about 8 percentage points. This effect became obfuscated by the shootings in Florida, and the claims of the shooter connecting his action to ISIS. In times of crisis. Trump’s “tough guy” image, sways some voters. Recall that polls had given Trump higher numbers than Clinton in being “best able to deal with terrorism.” There certainly is a gender bias on this issue with some voters. How much it affects voter choice in times of crises isn’t certain. Nonetheless, Trump’s poll numbers jumped a bit following the San Bernardino and Orlando shootings, and this cut into her lead, which is, as of this writing, 5.9 percent on the RCP Average of 20 days of polls ending June 22. This decline in Hilary’s numbers appears to be temporary, as Reuters on Thursday, June 23, had her back on top by 10 points, while Rasmussen’s poll, which has shown a Republican bias for some time, has her back to her pre-Orlando lead of 5 percent. It would be noted that when the Green Party’s Stein is on the ballot Hillary’s lead is cut by 2 to 5 percent. Recall that their candidate Nader, in the 2000 election cost Gore the election. Once Bernie Sanders gets totally on board with the Hillary candidacy, Hillary’s number should take another bounce. Polls indicate that 80 percent of Democratic voters will vote for her. How the remaining 20 percent vote could decide the election,

The task is clear: get enthusiastic support for Hillary’s campaign against Trump from Bernie Sanders and his supporters. Bernie says he is in the race until the end, now primarily to affect the party platform i.e., move it to the left in order to facilitate his well-known agenda. As I pointed out in my last post, this presents Democrats with a tough decision: moving to the left may cost Hillary the general election, and surely would make it more difficult for many “Never-Trump” Republicans to switch sides and vote for Hillary. Since a more left-leaning platform seems to be the price for Sanders and many of his supporters to join the Hillary parade, it presents Democrats with a difficult conundrum.

I believe there is a bridge that will permit Bernie Sanders to support Hillary Clinton and to help him pull most of those who “Feel the Bern” along with him.

Here’s the potential common ground:

  1. Sanders has been calling for an immediate raise in the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Hillary has supported raising it to $12..50 and doing so in steps. First of all, even Sanders will have to admit that the cost of living in such places as New York City and San Francisco are much greater than rural America and the nation’s smaller cities. Hence the need for a higher minimum wage in areas with the higher cost-of-living. Likewise, the negative impact of a big jump in labor costs will be greater for businesses in the smaller markets. Here is the room for compromise: agree on a $12.50 per hour minimum in the areas with a lower  cost-of-living, matched by a full $15 per hour minimum in the more expensive regions. If this is to have any chance at all to pass a Republican Congress, the raises will have to be in gradual steps, perhaps two of them over five years. But the he more urgent-need high cost-of-living areas can have an accelerated time-line for reaching the $15 minimum.
  2. Day Care: Both support day care programs. Hillary can concretize her commitment.
  3. Paid leave: see #2 above.
  4. Job displacement due to free trade agreements. As outlined in my previous post, Hillary can agree to offer bold, new programs to incentivize industries to move in to replace the lost jobs (through tax credits), and provide a safety net for the workers involved. The plan would include retraining costs and, for those whose salary was such as to not be able to accept new jobs, and who will have to relocate in order to get employment at the same wage level, help with moving costs. It might also provide for extended and supplemented unemployment insurance benefits until the new jobs are a reality. This may be the price for Bernie’s price for a pre-convention all-out endorsement. And it would be a powerful tool for dealing with the criticism of her free trade agreement position.

As we write this United Kingdom is voting on whether to stay in the European Union. The same issue of trade agreements and their displacement of workers is dominating the political discourse. The immigrant question is surely an important factor in”leave” support.  Donald Trump in a televised interview was asked about his position on Brexit. After making his now infamous reply of “Wha?”, when told what it meant, he said yes he was in favor of the U.K. leaving the Union.There is a growing world trend toward nationalism, and an opposition to free trade agreements. Could this spill over to the U.S.? If so, how much will that help the Trump campaign?

The polls show a small lead for the “stay” side. But those polls have their troubles as well as we do in in possible sample underweighting of independents and new voters. As a result, it is quite possible that the ‘leave” side is leading. If “leave” wins, look for a big rise in the price of gold, a big decline in the English pound, and  near crash declines in most world stock markets, including our own.

 

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