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Posted on Jul 14, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Chris Christie, Congress, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Republican Party, Social Issues: Free Trade and Labor displacement., Uncategorized | 0 comments

Donald’s pick for Veep; Republican’s time on Center Stage; what Americans really care about-Nope it’s not politics!

  What you say? The world may hang in the balance and Americans don’t care; they have joined the craze that has mushroomed all over the world, like popcorn popping. What am I talking about? Why Pokemon-Go, of course. Haven’t you seen otherwise normal-seeming people getting their exercise, walking fast, and with their heads focused in on the cell phones while frantically moving their fingers on the keyboard? Watch out, it looks like they will walk right into the intersection. Will they get hit by that car coming? What are they doing? They are looking at images of the area in front of their smart phone’s camera, trying to find, capture, destroy little cartoon characters that pop up on their screens right in front of them. Pokemon. Yes the same as those annoying little critters found on trading cards in an earlier generation. If you had children of the right age during that period you surely saw them obsessed with those cards. Hell, you might even have felt the...

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Posted on Feb 2, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Chris Christie, Cruz, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Iowa caucuses–the day after impressions

We didn’t get a final call on the Democratic race until mid-morning–and then it showed no change from the last numbers given the night before– showing a slim win for Clinton. 49.8 percent to 49.6. The last two major polls, the Des Moines Iowa Poll, which completed their polling on January 26, and the Quinnipiac poll, completed on January 31, had the race close with the former giving Clinton the edge by 3 points, and the latter poll having Sanders on top by 3. Averaging them had it dead even. As expected, turnout was the key as Sanders (and Trump in the Republican caucus) attracted young people and others who normally didn’t attend the caucus. What wasn’t certain was whether they’d turn out for the caucuses. The consensus among campaign and polling professionals was that if the turnout was 150,000 or less, Hillary would win, if it reached 200,000, Sanders would win. By that reasoning the race figured to be a dead-heat at 175,000. The last turnout figure I saw was...

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Posted on Jan 13, 2016 in Bernie Sanders, Chris Christie, Cruz, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, O'Malley, primary, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Post holiday polls–Iowa’s first-in-nation primary polls analyzed beyond just the top-line numbers.

The latest post-holiday polls are in for Iowa–the home of the first Republican Primary (actually Iowa employs a caucus attendee voting mechanism to select their convention delegates). Iowa is now a toss-up between Cruz and Trump in the Republican caucuses. Rubio and Carson duke it out for third. Sanders moves within striking distance of Hillary on the Democratic side. Behind the headline numbers, a deeper look into the polls reveals some interesting points. But first the top line numbers. Two new Republican caucus polls from Iowa have been released in the past 24 hours: The Public Policy Polling (PPP), and the highly respected Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll. They both show the Republican race very close, with PPP having Trump over Cruz 28 percent to 26 per cent, while the Iowa poll shows Cruz on top, 25 percent to 22 percent. Rubio is third in both polls–15 points behind Rubio. Carson is a point further back in fourth place in the Iowa poll and 5 points behind Rubio in the PPP poll. The other...

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Posted on Dec 22, 2015 in Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Marco Rubio, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Putin, Uncategorized | 0 comments

New polls: Trump’s lead just 4 percent in one poll, 21 percent in another–Aberration or ???–Analysis.

  The Quinnipiac national poll, released Tuesday, December 22, showed Trump with 28 percent, just a 4 percent lead over Ted Cruz–his closest rival (and the leader two recent Iowa Polls). The significance of the Quinnipiac poll is that it was taken over the period of December 16th to 20th; hence it was the first national poll administered, at least in significant part, following Trump’s praising of Putin’s authoritarian regime. Just as it appeared that Trump’s campaign was finally showing signs of imploding, a second poll was released, this one by CNN. The two polls showed unusual variance, not only in terms of absolute numbers, but in direction of change–at least for Trump. The CNN poll was taken the 17th to 21st. It showed Trump at 39 percent, a full 21 percentage point lead over Cruz. Some variance among polls is to be expected early in the primary season. But not like this. Obviously pollsters are having a difficult time modeling the likely voter. To understand what I mean about “modeling the likely voter,”...

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