How are the people who know Hillary and Donald best voting? New York revelations.

 

The decades long attacks on Hillary Clinton, from Whitewater, back in the nineties, to Benghazi now, have succeeded in raising doubts among voters about her trustworthiness. Nevertheless, she still leads Donald Trump by a healthy 7 or so points in most national polls. One interesting phenomenon polls also reveal, is that former Republican Mayor of New York’s assertion that being from New York he “knows a con when he sees one”–and that Donald Trump “is a con,” is bore out by polls of New York voters. Keep in mind that New York’s voters not only know Trump better than anyone else, but they also know Clinton best, having had her as their US. Senator for two terms.

So whom do New Yorkers favor in the race for president? Even including the pre-conventions Quinnipiac Poll, the RCPPoll of Polls for New York has her leading by 17 points. A new Siena poll shows that Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming 25 points lead over Donald Trump. And, that lead is even larger when you poll people in New York City–where he was raised, lived and did much of his promoting. It is also worth noting that Hillary also leads Donald by significant amounts in the vast majority of areas where he has done business outside of New York. This is also true in all of the large cities on both coasts and in Chicago and other Midwestern metropolitan areas.

P.T. Barnum famously said about the success he had feeding people “hokum” that: “There is a sucker born every minute!” It would seem that Trump’s brand of self-aggrandizement doesn’t go over as well in the places that have heard it for a long while. One wonders at how anyone at all could fall for his claims to know more about ISIS than any General, that in 24 hours he’d know more about foreign policy than anyone on the planet, that he’s the best at almost anything you can mention. It would be easy to draw the conclusion that, to put it gently, those voters outside of the urban centers might be less experienced with hustlers and their hokum, and are made to feel more secure and hopeful by Trump’s forceful presentations. After all, some exit polls have revealed a greater propensity of those who said they voted for Trump to have been regular watchers of his television show The Apprentice. They may well have been attracted to his berating of the “losers” and his well known, forceful, “Your Fired!”

I don’t minimize the show biz appeal. Having lived for much of my life in California, where Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger were elected Governor; George Murphy and John Tunney, U.S. Senators; and Sonny Bono and Clint Eastwood, Mayors, it would be foolish to underestimate the show biz angle. Perhaps that appeal is magnified with the popularity of on-line media.

I don’t like to contemplate the appeal of Donald Trump to frustrated white supremacists, other racists, and even would be bullies, but it certainly is a factor. How big of a factor probably will determine the future of democracy in America.