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Posted on Sep 23, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Breaking down the polls: Signs of Trump peaking out, Clinton maintains lead over Sanders. Updated Tuesday.

The latest polls as of this writing show Donald Trump’s voter support leveling off or declining. Jeb Bush has his challenges as well. After two polls last week showed Bernie Sanders moving into a small lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, two new ones show her moving back into a comfortable lead both in Iowa and nationally. I consider only respected, probability-based polls. Caveat: Polls this far removed from the election are notoriously volatile. Now for the details. Trump’s problems are three-fold: 1) His support has leveled off to about 24%. 2) His unfavorable ratings are high, the highest of any Republican candidate, and 3) Virtually every Republican voter has heard of him. Taking the last point first, it should be noted that one of the most significant variables in early polling is name recognition. Donald Trump’s celebrity made for high name recognition going into the first debate (Hillary’s, on the Democratic side, as well). Trump’s controversial utterances insured that his name would get a lot of publicity. Bad as well...

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Posted on Aug 4, 2015 in Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Jeb Bush, Scott Walker | 0 comments

The Republican First “Debate” Thursday; How soon will Donald Trump Implode?

The Republican Debate. Donald Trump has to avoid looking like a fool and parry expected attacks on him, all the while continuing to garner headlines. Jeb Bush figures to preempt the “statesman” role and look the most Presidential. Walker and Rubio want to stamp themselves as THE conservative candidate. Cruz hopes to do that as well and has positioned himself to benefit from Trump’s support, when and if the latter’s candidacy falters. Christie has to re-establish himself as one of the front-runners.

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