Posted on Sep 23, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls |
The latest polls as of this writing show Donald Trump’s voter support leveling off or declining. Jeb Bush has his challenges as well. After two polls last week showed Bernie Sanders moving into a small lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, two new ones show her moving back into a comfortable lead both in Iowa and nationally. I consider only respected, probability-based polls. Caveat: Polls this far removed from the election are notoriously volatile. Now for the details. Trump’s problems are three-fold: 1) His support has leveled off to about 24%. 2) His unfavorable ratings are high, the highest of any Republican candidate, and 3) Virtually every Republican voter has heard of him. Taking the last point first, it should be noted that one of the most significant variables in early polling is name recognition. Donald Trump’s celebrity made for high name recognition going into the first debate (Hillary’s, on the Democratic side, as well). Trump’s controversial utterances insured that his name would get a lot of publicity. Bad as well...
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Posted on Aug 31, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Foreign Policy Issues, Hillary Clinton, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Scott Walker, Uncategorized |
Is this the year of Marshall McLuhan’s “The medium is the message.” No one appears to even consider the absurd policies Trump advocates. It reminds us that McLuhan later co-authored a book that substituted “massage” for “message,” in which it was argued that the medium “massages” the human sensorium, the place where symbols get interpreted by the senses. In this application it appears that Trump’s simplistic, but forcefully presented, solutions to frustrating political problems that are of concern to a wide audience, “massages” the sensorium, so that his policies take a back seat to his style. Thus far it has prevented a critical examination of Trump’s proposals. Whether Trump’s “massage” can keep Republican voters from examining his “messages” for the length of a long campaign is the interesting question. Similar cases, such as Huey Long and Adolph Hitler, suggest that we are only one large economic downturn away from electing a demagogue. In that light “interesting” becomes “frightening.”
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