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Posted on Oct 27, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Biden, Democratic Party, Donald Trump, Dr. Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls, Republican Party, Uncategorized | 0 comments

Going into 3rd debate: Nat’l & Iowa polls–Trump falls behind Carson, and then claims the polls are fictitious.

  Over the past weekend, four Iowa polls showed Trump’s campaign stalling and then losing the lead to Dr. Carson. Our poll data analysis predicted this over a month ago, for reasons that we’ll note below, and now the first national poll confirms that it isn’t just an Iowa phenomenon, as many Trump supporters have alleged. Monday, the CBS/New York Times national poll of Republican voters showed Dr. Carson, for the first time, taking the lead over Donald Trump, 26 percent to 22 percent. Going into the third debate two of what many believe are Trump personality bugaboos, defensiveness and denial, are rearing their ugly heads as he argues that the debate won’t be fair and then denies the new polls numbers, reportedly arguing that the media “continues to report fictitious numbers,” and even blames Iowan’s for his troubles. In fairness, Trump subsequently admitted that he was in second place in Iowa. Today, Wednesday, October 28, Texas and Oklahoma poll results were published. The Texas poll showed that Trump’s earlier lead was...

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Posted on Sep 23, 2015 in Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elections-U.S., Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Presidential debates, primary, Public Opinion Polls | 0 comments

Breaking down the polls: Signs of Trump peaking out, Clinton maintains lead over Sanders. Updated Tuesday.

The latest polls as of this writing show Donald Trump’s voter support leveling off or declining. Jeb Bush has his challenges as well. After two polls last week showed Bernie Sanders moving into a small lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, two new ones show her moving back into a comfortable lead both in Iowa and nationally. I consider only respected, probability-based polls. Caveat: Polls this far removed from the election are notoriously volatile. Now for the details. Trump’s problems are three-fold: 1) His support has leveled off to about 24%. 2) His unfavorable ratings are high, the highest of any Republican candidate, and 3) Virtually every Republican voter has heard of him. Taking the last point first, it should be noted that one of the most significant variables in early polling is name recognition. Donald Trump’s celebrity made for high name recognition going into the first debate (Hillary’s, on the Democratic side, as well). Trump’s controversial utterances insured that his name would get a lot of publicity. Bad as well...

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