Update today-New Polls with Biden out Hillary’s lead insurmountable? Carson edges into 1st . Trump plateaus.
Four polls, now, all show that, as expected, with Joe Biden’s name now off the pollsters’ list, Hillary’s has surged to an even bigger lead for the nomination. If she doesn’t stumble (or get pushed) due to her e-mail controversy it appears to be insurmountable. Nationally, Fox’s poll, November 4, had Clinton on top of Sanders, 56 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley barely lights up the board at 2 percent. The new NBC/WSJ poll shows Clinton up over Sanders by 2 to 1, 62 percent to 31 percent. O’Malley is far back with 3 percent support. Quinnipiac has her up by “only” 18 percent, but her numbers even there are over the magic 50 percent level (53 percent). O’Malley’s hope was to pick up some of the anti-Hillary Democratic voters who had previously indicate Biden as their choice, and who didn’t feel comfortable supporting self-proclaimed socialist, Bernie Sanders. This didn’t materialize, and, the only rationale for O’Malley continuing in the race would be to give his name national exposure so as to be considered for the vice-presidential spot on the ticket. Sanders’ recent attempt to water down the negative effects with the electorate due to his aforementioned socialist sobriquet by defining himself as a “Democratic Socialist” seems not to have paid off, at least thus far. In the Monmouth poll, Sanders, who is from Vermont, is now behind Clinton, by 3 percent, in the one state where he led–neighboring New Hampshire. A week earlier, a CBS poll in New Hampshire showed Sanders with a 15 percentage point lead over Clinton. A South Carolina poll had Clinton’s lead over Sanders at 56 points, one in Georgia had her up by 57, another in North Carolina had her up by 37. A Texas poll released October 28, showed Clinton by 49. In Iowa, on November 2, a new poll showed Clinton leading Sanders by 32 percentage points. For comparison, a poll, taken before Biden’s withdrawal, had it at only 11 percent and one week earlier, a seven-day rolling CBS poll in Iowa, that only partly reflected the Democratic debate and Biden’s announcement, showed Clinton’s lead over Sanders at only 3 percent.
Many of Sanders’ strong supporters are thinking of a “dream ticket” of Clinton and Sanders. Although that would have the support of many Democrats, that socialist label affixed to Sanders would cost Clinton votes in many parts of the country, so I’m guessing it will be an unfulfilled dream.
On the Republican side, A Fox News poll November 4, had Trump on top of Carson 26 percent to 23 percent; Rubio and Cruz are next at 11 percent, with Bush fifth at 4 percent. The new NBC/WSJ national poll now has Carson ahead of Trump by 29 percent to 23 percent. Rubio and Cruz follow at 11 percent and 10 percent respectively. Quinnipiac found Trump in the lead 24 percent to 23 percent. As in other national and state polls, outside of the southern states, Trump holds on to most of his supporters, but he has failed to expand that base. Dr. Carson may suffer the same problem. though it would take a few more polls showing stagnation to be confident in that conclusion as there are still 18 percent of Republicans who haven’t formed an opinion of him yet, and his national “unfavorable” opinion numbers are quite a bit less than Trump’s. State polls are sketchy. Monmouth’s new poll for New Hampshire was released Monday. The key finding was one that you have to go beyond the headlines to dig up: Only 1 in 5 Republican voters in N.H. said that they were “completely decided” about whom they will vote for. Another 39 percent say they “Have a strong preference right now but I am willing to consider other candidates.” 22 percent have just a “Slight preference” and 19 percent are totally “undecided,” as of right now. Despite the fact that Trump has led the polls in N.H. for many weeks, his numbers haven’t risen for some time. Carson, while picking up some new support there, seems to be stuck in a ten point range, with only his “favorable”–“unfavorable” numbers giving his candidacy a reason to hope that he can extend his base of support much beyond the “evangelical Christian” cohort. He does get some of voters who describe themselves as “very conservative” but the bulk of their support goes to Cruz and Rubio, in that order. Even though Carson’s numbers are surging right now, and he does benefit from Fox’s Rupert Murdoch’s backing, his unfavorables rose from only 10 percent in Monmouth’s last poll (in September) to 19 percent in the one just released. Trump actually increased his already high unfavorables from 36 to 43 percent. It seems that the more people get to know Trump the less they like him. Outside of his evangelical and very conservative base, the same can be said about Carson, though he still retains a considerable edge over Trump in this category. Carson’s fundamentalist-preacher style probably will play better in the heartland than in the northeast. Donald Trump’s divisive campaigning style suggests that in N.H., as in Iowa and in national polls, his support has plateaued. Dr. Ben Carson, at least in N.H.,the Monmouth poll suggests, has little more than niche support, and the path for him to broaden his base of support in this surge beyond about 30 percent is unclear. The large number of voters in N.H. that have not made their mind up yet, thus gives the candidates trailing Trump and Carson some reason for optimism there. Carson’s religious themed campaign style seems as much a part of who he is as Donald Trump’s, blustering, boisterous and, some say, bullying style, defines him. If these observations are accurate, one searches for the emergence of one or more of the other candidates. In the Quinnipiac national poll, released Wednesday, November 4, Rubio received 14 percent, Cruz 13, and Bush was far behind in fifth place with only 4 percent support. In N.H. whom that might be is still unclear. Kasich has maintained his 11 percent support, higher than his national numbers. Gov. Kasich’s unfavorables, however, have also risen from 19 to 31 percent. Despite the relative proximity of his home state, Ohio, fully 23 percent, the highest of any candidate, have no opinion about Gov. Kasich. His campaign could benefit from more positive exposure in New Hampshire. Marco Rubio may well be on the verge of making a breakthrough following his debate performance. His support in N.H. is now at 13 percent, up from 4 percent in Monmouth’s previous poll. Equally significant, he is now named as the second choice of 14 percent of the supporters of another candidate. This is up from 6 percent in Monmouth’s last poll. Encouraging for Rubio’s campaign are his low unfavorables–only 19 percent down from 26 percent in September. It will be interesting to see how his numbers hold up with the new, negative attention he’s drawing from Bush and Trump. None of the other candidates have made changes among voters worth of sitting up at attention, though Bush and Christie have reduced their unfavorables and increased their number of supporters slightly. Their candidacies are still alive in New Hampshire. Cruz, at 11 percent support also must be considered in the conversation, though that is the same as his September support level, while his unfavorables have risen by 4 percent, from 28 to 32 percent. Given the large number of voters who have yet to settle firmly on any candidate, we can expect big changes in support in the months to come.
